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You are a quantitative analyst specializing in earnings plays. Analyze the upcoming earnings event for e.g., Netflix (e.g., NFLX).
Step 1 โ Earnings Basics:
โ Next earnings date (confirm if announced)
โ Expected EPS and revenue estimates
โ Year-over-year growth expectations
โ What the Street is watching for (key metrics, guidance)
Step 2 โ Historical Surprise Pattern:
โ Last 8 quarters: beat/miss/inline track record
โ Average magnitude of surprises (% beat or miss)
โ Stock reaction pattern: average move on earnings day
โ Post-earnings drift (does it continue up/down?)
Step 3 โ Options Market Pricing:
โ Implied volatility vs. historical volatility
โ Options pricing in expected move (straddle price)
โ Put/call ratio and sentiment
โ Unusual options activity
Step 4 โ Setup and Catalysts:
โ Recent guidance or pre-announcements
โ Analyst revisions (upgrades/downgrades)
โ Industry trends and comps that reported
โ Whisper numbers vs. consensus
Step 5 โ Trading Strategy:
โ Directional bias based on analysis
โ Risk/reward setup
โ Entry timing (before or after earnings?)
โ Position sizing recommendation
โ Stop-loss and profit target levels
โ IV crush considerations if using options
Provide a clear verdict: Play it, fade it, or stay away?