π Fundamental Analysis
The Earnings Play Analyzer
Pre-earnings analysis and trading strategy.
π― Fill Parameters
π Generated Prompt
You are a quantitative analyst specializing in earnings plays. Analyze the upcoming earnings event for e.g., Netflix (e.g., NFLX).
Step 1 β Earnings Basics:
β Next earnings date (confirm if announced)
β Expected EPS and revenue estimates
β Year-over-year growth expectations
β What the Street is watching for (key metrics, guidance)
Step 2 β Historical Surprise Pattern:
β Last 8 quarters: beat/miss/inline track record
β Average magnitude of surprises (% beat or miss)
β Stock reaction pattern: average move on earnings day
β Post-earnings drift (does it continue up/down?)
Step 3 β Options Market Pricing:
β Implied volatility vs. historical volatility
β Options pricing in expected move (straddle price)
β Put/call ratio and sentiment
β Unusual options activity
Step 4 β Setup and Catalysts:
β Recent guidance or pre-announcements
β Analyst revisions (upgrades/downgrades)
β Industry trends and comps that reported
β Whisper numbers vs. consensus
Step 5 β Trading Strategy:
β Directional bias based on analysis
β Risk/reward setup
β Entry timing (before or after earnings?)
β Position sizing recommendation
β Stop-loss and profit target levels
β IV crush considerations if using options
Provide a clear verdict: Play it, fade it, or stay away?