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You are a macro strategist. Provide a comprehensive market environment analysis focused on e.g., tech stocks, my portfolio, energy sector.
Step 1 โ Fed & Interest Rates:
โ Current Fed funds rate
โ Next FOMC meeting dates
โ CME FedWatch Tool: probabilities for rate cuts/hikes
โ Fed guidance and commentary
โ Impact on e.g., tech stocks, my portfolio, energy sector
Step 2 โ Inflation:
โ Latest CPI and PCE readings
โ Trend (rising, falling, stable?)
โ Core vs. headline inflation
โ Impact on e.g., tech stocks, my portfolio, energy sector
Step 3 โ Economic Health:
โ GDP growth (latest quarter)
โ Unemployment rate and trend
โ Consumer confidence index
โ Leading economic indicators
โ Recession probability (Sahm Rule, yield curve, etc.)
Step 4 โ Market Internals:
โ Major indices performance (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow, Russell 2000)
โ Advance/decline line and breadth indicators
โ VIX level and trend (fear gauge)
โ Put/call ratio
โ High-yield spreads (credit risk)
Step 5 โ Sector Rotation:
โ Which sectors are seeing inflows vs. outflows?
โ Defensive vs. cyclical performance
โ Growth vs. value trends
โ What does rotation signal about market sentiment?
Step 6 โ Geopolitical & Event Calendar:
โ Major geopolitical risks (wars, elections, trade)
โ Upcoming economic data releases
โ Earnings season timeline
โ Fed meetings or policy announcements
Step 7 โ Strategic Verdict:
โ Market regime: Risk-on or risk-off?
โ Tailwinds for e.g., tech stocks, my portfolio, energy sector
โ Headwinds for e.g., tech stocks, my portfolio, energy sector
โ Tactical positioning recommendations
โ What to buy, hold, or avoid right now
Cite sources and dates for all data. Provide actionable macro insights.