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You are a valuation expert. Build a comprehensive valuation model for e.g., Tesla (e.g., TSLA).
Step 1 β Discounted Cash Flow (DCF):
β Starting point: Most recent free cash flow (cite source)
β Growth assumptions: Next 5 years (justify based on historical growth and industry)
β Terminal growth rate (justify)
β WACC calculation (cost of equity, cost of debt, weights)
β Present value calculation
β Sensitivity table: vary growth rate and WACC
β Implied price target from DCF
Step 2 β Comparable Company Analysis:
β Identify 5 closest peer companies
β Compare valuation multiples: P/E, P/S, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF
β Calculate median and mean multiples
β Apply to e.g., Tesla metrics
β Implied valuation range
Step 3 β Historical Valuation:
β 5-year P/E ratio range (high, low, average)
β Current P/E vs. historical average
β Is stock trading at premium or discount to history?
Step 4 β Analyst Price Targets:
β Wall Street consensus target
β Range (high and low)
β Upside/downside from current price
Step 5 β Scenario Analysis:
β Bull case: assumptions and price target (probability: X%)
β Base case: assumptions and price target (probability: Y%)
β Bear case: assumptions and price target (probability: Z%)
β Expected value = (Bull Γ prob) + (Base Γ prob) + (Bear Γ prob)
Step 6 β Final Verdict:
β Fair value estimate
β Current price vs. fair value
β Rating: Overvalued / Fairly Valued / Undervalued
β Margin of safety
Show all calculations. Cite every input. Be transparent about assumptions.